Are Home Prices Going To Crash? Here’s What the Data Says

by Lori Aguirre

If you’ve been seeing posts predicting another housing crash, you’re not alone. The topic gets attention fast — but when you look beyond the headlines, the data paints a very different picture.

In reality, the housing market isn’t showing signs of collapse. Instead, experts say we’re headed for gradual, steady growth over the next several years.

The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts

According to the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, which surveys over 100 top housing market experts each quarter, home prices are expected to continue rising through at least 2029 (see graph below):

Each bar in the chart shows an increase, not a decline. The main difference year-to-year is the pace of that growth — but the direction remains up.

To illustrate this, let’s look at three sets of projections: the overall average, the most optimistic forecasts, and the most cautious ones (see chart below):

Average forecast: Home prices will rise about 15% by 2029.
Optimists: Expect roughly 26% growth.
Pessimists: Still predict about 5% appreciation.

What’s most telling is that none of these experts anticipate prices dropping — even the most conservative outlook points to gains.

How This Compares to a “Normal” Market

Historically, home prices appreciate around 4–5% per year. The forecasts for the next few years — 2–3.5% annually — are actually more balanced and sustainable than the surge we saw in 2020–2022, when some areas saw jumps of 15–20%.

So while the market may feel slower now, that’s not a bad thing. It’s simply normalizing after years of record-breaking price spikes.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

Some worry that because prices rose so quickly during the pandemic, they must fall just as fast. But housing doesn’t work like that.

The key difference between now and 2008 is supply and demand.

There are still too few homes for the number of buyers who want them.
Even with affordability challenges, inventory remains tight.

That shortage is keeping a floor under home values — and preventing a nationwide decline.

And while the broader economy may feel uncertain, history shows housing always rebounds. Over the past 50 years, despite recessions and fluctuations, home prices have consistently trended upward.